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Prompt to estimate users for a product in tier 2 and 3 India

What you get: A reachable-user estimate for tier 2 and 3 states and a 90-day plan. Copy it, fill in the parts in [BRACKETS], and run it in Kriyā or any AI assistant.

The prompt

You are a growth analyst. Estimate how many people in tier 2 and tier 3 India could use this product.

Product: [PRODUCT]
Language: [LANGUAGE]
States to start in: [STATES]

Give:
1. Internet users and broadband subscribers in these states, from the figures below, and why subscriptions are not people
2. The filters that apply to us (age, phone, language, payment habit) with a percentage for each and why
3. The reachable users, with the arithmetic
4. What these users need that metro users do not (data cost, language, trust, cash or UPI)
5. A first 90-day plan to reach the first ten thousand of them

Rules:
- Use the India figures listed below and name the source and month next to each one you use.
- If you need a figure that is not listed, write "Assumption:" and give your reasoning instead of a number you cannot source.
- Plain words. Short sections with headings. No filler.

India figures to use (from productgrowth.in/numbers):
- India had 958 million active internet users in 2025 (IAMAI-Kantar). Source: https://productgrowth.in/numbers/internet-users-india/
- Uttar Pradesh has the most internet subscriptions of any Indian state, 155.39 million at the end of June 2026, followed by Maharashtra with 130.11 million, out of 1,114.17 million in India (TRAI). Source: https://productgrowth.in/numbers/internet-subscribers-by-state-india/
- India had 1,101.21 million broadband subscribers at the end of August 2026, up from 1,094.48 million in July, according to TRAI's monthly subscription data. Source: https://productgrowth.in/numbers/broadband-subscribers-india/
- India had 55.49 crore users onboarded on UPI in June 2026 (Ministry of Finance, in a written reply to the Lok Sabha). Source: https://productgrowth.in/numbers/upi-users-india/
Run this in Kriyā → Kriyā opens with this prompt in its box; nothing is sent until you press send. Replace the [BRACKETS] first.

What to fill in

ReplaceWithExample (used for the sample answer)
[PRODUCT]Your productAn online tuition app for class 9 and 10
[LANGUAGE]LanguageHindi
[STATES]StatesUttar Pradesh, Bihar and Rajasthan

The numbers this prompt uses

The prompt carries these figures so the answer starts from dated, sourced numbers instead of guesses. Each page shows the source, the month and the history.

Sample answer

Sample answer from Kriyā, 26 October 2026, for the example inputs above. Kept as it came back; links added beside each figure.

1. Internet base, and why subscriptions are not people

  • India had 958M active internet users in 2025 (IAMAI–Kantar) [1]. UP alone had 155.39M internet subscriptions at end-June 2026 (TRAI), out of 1,114.17M nationally, about 14%. The same TRAI figure covers Maharashtra at 130.11M.
  • Bihar and Rajasthan: not in the figures you gave. Assumption: together about 10-11% of national subscriptions (about 115M), so the three states hold roughly 270M subscriptions. Verify on TRAI's state table. Kriyā's estimate
  • Broadband: 1,101.21M nationally at end-August 2026 (TRAI). No state split, so I use the subscription figure. source
  • Subscriptions are not people: one person can hold two SIMs or connections, and a family phone serves 3-4 people. Assumption: about 0.65 users per subscription, so about 175M users in the three states.

2. Filters (all assumptions, validate with surveys)

  • Age 14-16 or their parents: about 4.5% of users. The cohort is large, but many are not online. Kriyā's estimate
  • Own or shared smartphone access: 70%. Shared family phones work for study. Kriyā's estimate
  • Hindi-first: 85%. UP and Bihar are almost entirely Hindi; Rajasthan is mostly Hindi. Kriyā's estimate
  • Can pay ₹500-1,000/month: 20%. Most government-school families will not pay, so this is the hardest filter. Kriyā's estimate

3. Reachable users

175M × 4.5% = 7.9M → × 70% = 5.5M → × 85% = 4.7M → × 20% = about 9.4 lakh paying-capable students (a ~1 million ceiling). Kriyā's estimate

Realistic first-year serviceable pool, assuming 30% sit in tier 2/3 towns we can reach: about 2.8 lakh. So 10,000 users is about 3.5% of that. Kriyā's estimate

4. What these users need that metro users don't

  • Data cost: low-bitrate video, offline downloads, lightweight Android APK.
  • Language: Hindi UI and teaching, not translated English.
  • Trust: free demo class, visible results, local-teacher faces.
  • Payments: UPI is the rail, with 55.49 crore UPI users in June 2026 (Ministry of Finance). Offer UPI AutoPay for monthly plans [4], plus weekly or monthly passes of ₹99-499, since parents balk at big annual payments.

5. 90-day plan to 10,000 Kriyā's estimate

  • Days 1-30: Launch 3 districts per state. Run free Hindi live classes via WhatsApp groups, and sign 50 tutors and school teachers as referrers.
  • Days 31-60: Convert via a ₹99 trial week. Add streak challenges [3]. Target 4,000 signups.
  • Days 61-90: Referral rewards plus regional YouTube creators. Target 10,000 signups, 15% paid. Kriyā's estimate

Next action: run a 200-parent WhatsApp survey in Lucknow, Patna and Jaipur to replace my four assumed filters with real numbers.

Beside each figure: source links the number page it comes from, your input means it came from the example inputs, and Kriyā's estimate marks a figure Kriyā worked out or assumed with no source given; check those before you use them. Your own run will differ.

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